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– whether the trade made it to the -100% TP level before it hit the original SL. – whether the trade made it to the -61.8% TP level before it hit the original SL. Nothing where spread is more than 25% of trade width. Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses. Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated.
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Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I’m no expert. As stated in the title, this is for H1 only. These results may very well not play out for other time frames – who knows, it may not even work on H1 starting this Monday. Now that we have a basic understanding of concepts such as expectations and what the market has priced in, we can look at some interesting trading techniques and tools.
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Trade Width – the size of the confirmation candle, and thus the “width” of your trade on which to determine position size, draw fib levels, etc. The sample size is much too small for anything really meaningful when you slice by hour or pair. I wasn’t particularly payeer automatics looking to test a specific pair here – just the system overall as if you were going to trade it on all pairs with a reasonable spread. There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it’d be a crapshoot to an extent.
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Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -61.8% – not going to go into huge detail, see the spreadsheet for calculations if you want. But, in a nutshell, if the trade was a win to 61.8%, it returns a positive # based on 61.8% of the trade width, minus the spread. Otherwise, it returns the True Risk as a negative.
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Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we’re looking for with this system. Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL. Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system.
Wondering if anyone else here uses Renko and would like to share some ideas? I generally trade the London New York overlap and am around for those hours. This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it’s due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time.
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This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well, but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless. However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades. Most guys who day hookup females locate the whole process of dating being exciting.
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- Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I’ll cover this in my data below – it ends up not being a problem.
Overall Growth(-161.8% TP, 1% Risk) – pretty straightforward. Assuming you risked 1% on each trade, what the overall growth level would be chronologically. Spread % of Width – How big is the spread compared to the trade width? Not used in any calculations, but interesting nonetheless. – for all losing trades, whether or not the 2-candle stop loss would have saved the trade and how far it ended up getting if so.
And the data showed this – often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking. For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 “best” trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated. I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I’ve said before I’m going for a pretty mechanical system.
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Retracement level between -61.8% and -100% – how deep the price retraced after hitting -61.8%, but before hitting -100%. A plain hyphen “-” means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -61.8% to -100%. – whether the trade made it to the -161.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
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“No” means it didn’t save it, N/A means it wasn’t a losing trade so it’s not relevant. Retracement level between -100% and -161.8% – how deep the price retraced after hitting -100%, but before hitting -161.8%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it’s easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX’s original thread. A plain hyphen “-” means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -100% to -161.8%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
I’d say, “I got this. Give me close of New York session on Friday to 2 hours before the market close. Easy gig.” I feel a lot of times people can over think and try to over engineer making moderate annual gains in the Forex markets. Simple and low maintenance strategies can be devised to do this.
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Let’s look closer at the trades when we have this set up. I said buy 61.8, but that is too arbitrary. Working one day a week here, should pretend to look busy, huh.
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Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I’d love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that’s a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers. As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade, which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
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I promised to discuss some stuff about macroeconomic approaches to forex, and well, with some delay here I am. Again, here I introduce the very same disclaimer. This is a professional approach, not coming from retail. Take everything with a grain of salt, and exercise proper due diligence with your approach. Sincerely hope you get something out of this post.
Not trying to “time the market” or anything, but it’s probably going to be 90 to 120 minutes before the market closes this happens. I’ve been trading forex with moderate success for about a year. My account is up but not to the level I’d like. I recently started trading using primarily renko bars and I seem to be doing better.
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